Simulating the future of agriculture land use in the Netherlands

The agricultural sector in the Netherlands has lost much of its importance over the last 50 years in terms of the number of people involved and its relative contribution to the economy – even though production is still increasing. Yet, the area under agricultural use has changed relatively little: farmland still dominates the country.

The question for the future is how expected further changes in agriculture will affect agricultural land use: how much land will be taken out of production and to what use it will be put. This is especially relevant now that the Dutch government has decided to loosen its grip on spatial planning. Two opposing socio-economic scenarios are therefore drafted that offer a coherent view on agricultural change, external pressures and government intervention. Implementing these in a land use simulation model provides an initial answer to the possible future of agricultural land in the country.

Start: 2001
Finished: 2002
Publications related to Future of Agriculture
Rijken, B., Bemmel, B. van, Koomen, E., Sink or swim: exploring the social cost and benefits of water management policies in delta regions in the context of climate change, Abstract and presentation at the 55th ERSA congress, 25-28 August 2015, Lisbon, Portugal. 2015.
Butijn, A., Toekomst van de Nederlandse glastuinbouw, Bachelor Thesis Earth & Economics, VU University Amsterdam , 2013.
Remarks: Evaluated: 16 May 2013 – Supervisor: Dekkers, J.E.C.
Diogo, V., Koomen, E., Kuhlman, T., Implementation of an economic valuation module in the Land Use Scanner model. Report for PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency., Amsterdam, 2013.
Olijve, I., Ruimtelijke veranderingen in de glastuinbouw, Bachelor thesis Earth and Economics, VU University Amsterdam, 2013.
Remarks: Evaluated: 28 June 2013 – Supervisor: Koomen, E.
Agrarwirtschaft Kuhlman, T., Tabeau, A., Gaaff, A., van Tongeren, F., Dekkers, J.E.C., Future land-use change in the Netherlands: an analysis based on a chain of models, Agrarwirtschaft, 55 (5/6), pp.238-247, 2006.
Koomen, E., Kuhlman, T., Loonen, W., Ritsema van Eck, J., De Ruimtescanner in ‘Ruimte voor landbouw’; data- en modelaanpassingen, Spinlab Research Memorandum SL-02, Amsterdam, 2005.
TESG Koomen, E., Kuhlman, T., Groen, J., Bouwman, A., Simulating the future of agricultural land use in the Netherlands, Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, 96 (2), pp.218-224, 2005.
Groen, J., Kuhlman, J., Koomen, E., Hoofdstuk 4 Landbouw, in: Gordijn, H., Derksen, W., Groen, J., Pálsdóttir, L., Piek, M., Pieterse, N., Snellen, D. (eds.), De ongekende ruimte verkend, Nai Uitgevers, Rotterdam, 2003.
Koomen, E., Groen, J., Borsboom-van Beurden, J., Kuhlman, T., Rural land use dynamics, in: Dijst, M., Schot, P., de Jong, K. (eds.), Reviewed abstracts of the Framing Land Use Dynamics conference, Framing Land Use Dynamics, Utrecht, 16-18 April, 2003.